Microsoft:
One of the wonderful company in terms of business sense. They still generate loads of Cash. They are upbeat about earnings. It's multi legged Gorilla. It has OS which ubiquitous similar to UK in 18th and 19th century until few years. It has web browser and it is inseparable and servered more than 90% of netties until 5 or 6 years back. It has Golden touch interms of enterprise look at MOSS (Sharepoint) and Office products. It enjoyed more than half (50%) smart phone market share until few year back.
Apple:
That guys are pure awesome. If you go back carefully in 2007 and study the market of mobile devices and it's capabilities and experience (including windows mobile) you understand why this guys are standing where it is standing now. They are Game changers. If it is not that disruption happen on mobile, they are still a guy in music.
Google:
They know what they do. They have so many failed attempts and they fall quickly and get back quickly. Most of their home grown services except few bruised them time and time again. But they made always beautiful acquisition which includes Ad sense to Android. They know the cloud and they made it so that service need not bother whatever load it brings with them.
Free:
Sure. Free is beautiful thing. People like free things. Free thing attracts people. Even if it is not free, considering something sells low cost in the place of market that dominated by premium cost, will be going to supre hit. That's what time and again market proved. HP tocuhpad, Amazon kindle fire etc.
Android:
Android started free but it has great team which includes carrier to device manufacturer. Once you get the software and service as half good as something best in the market people will see. Considering the experience of existing one, if you provide better than existing predominant one and half as good as the best in the market, yes you will hit the right place with right time. If it is free, so many jump into, and once you get the momentum, be it bad press or good going to be pushing factor. It develops familiarity and momentum snowballs into formidable force. Unless otherwise some game changing product blocks it, it will continues to roll.
Internet:
It is everything. Whatever you buy, it needs to talk some way into internet. And barrier to internet is pretty low, which does't need or force it have windows or macs or linux. Or mobile or what not.
Windows:
Apple proved windows can be diluted with product with right value as ecosystem. Mac, iPad, iPhone, iTouch, AppStore and iTuens. Android proved and become juggernaut. And above all it is internet which is going to be universe for anything and everything going to determine or going to dilute the mode by which internet is being accessed, if it is TV, people look for smart TV, if it is phone people look for smart phone. That smart factor's central nervous system is internet.
Assume that, if browser is disabled in windows or mac, no body will buy (sorry at least 50% will not not buy) them. So major thing which will be part of buying decision is internet. And past 6 to 8 years, internet started diluting platform dependency in a scale that big vendors like Microsft failed to recognize it.
For Microsoft, it is always 2 to 4 years late in the game:
They launched Zune, after seeing iPod peaked out and failed to innovate windows mobile. Later, seeing iPhone, they thought it will not make it, may be purely because, their policy against buying competitor product. Once they saw, iPhone's demand and Android's momentum, it was already too late but they launched windows phone with moden touch. But those vendor moved on to iPad and tablet. Microsoft has just blinked.
So, these are summary of wrongs which Microsoft did,
- Zune in response to iPod -- probably it should have been windows phone with those things natively integrated
- Windows Phone to iPhone -- it should have been tablet, if they succeeded based on step 1, but atleast windows phone with tablet at this time would have stopped some bleeding
Other attacks on Office suites, email and search are big topic in itself.
- Totally microsoft suffered because of they are not open and not listened to various signals they saw over many years.
- Though Steve Ballmer monkey danced and yelled "developer, developer, developer" but it sounds like developer left long past and yelling merely vanished in vacuum --- Apps, Ecosystem with Development, distribution (market) etc and upcoming road-map like connected devices, TV, infotainment etc makes Android strong ahead of windows phone.
- Looking at how Device vendor embraced snugly to mine some Gold on the path or tunnel created by Apple, it is going to be long moving target for MS.
- Current technology like Touch, Voice and icon based user interfaces advancement made underlying platform branding is less important where in in Desktop or Laptop it always make sense to follow the leader. So brand value of Microsoft as OS leader won't help them seal or make any dent in the mobile area, there is no reuse in terms of existing learning for those system. And again apps which neutralized those leader advantage.
So for past 10 years MS entered late to Game and exit yearly. I am seeing how IE lost share and after all bruise started to overhaul IE. Slightly different story goes to Zune, WinPho, Search etc (these things followed or reaction to their lost focus not entering and innovating early into market).
If you think of UK to Microsoft, you will be right that it is going to be, within couple of year, they are like nice player and going to be kicked out of everywhere (similar to CES 2012).
